Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu Massively Underperformed Over Memorial Day Weekend

Access media was inflating the numbers.

If there's anything the mainstream, access media is good for, it's propping up failing multimedia properties. Whether for political gain or just plain, old tribalism, many an outlet came out the gates this past weekend to claim that Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu had managed to net $100 million over its four-day opening Memorial Day weekend. The problem is that this number was a generous (some might argue suspiciously so) estimate and not the real total. Come the beginning of the week, the actual totals were revealed as follows:

• $81 million (3-Day Total)

• $98 million (4-Day Total, Including Memorial Day)

• $167 million (Worldwide Total)

If you train your eyes to the domestic haul, that's not even $100 million for the entire holiday weekend, which is what the prognosticators were so desperate to make stick. But why go through all that effort to cook box office numbers? Well, likely (allegedly) because Disney doesn't want anyone reporting what a giant flop Mando is likely going to be for the company. And neither do the activists in the media and the shill social media influencers who make their bread and butter by clapping like enthusiastic seals any time Disney throws movie tickets or screener copies their way.

The failure of Mando also forces Disney to acknowledge a few other problems that the company would presumably rather kick down the road. The biggest is Dave Filoni, who was recently put in as head of Lucasfilm following the exit of Kathleen Kennedy. As creative lead of the studio, the direction of Star Wars is falling at his feet, and his first time up to bat was a total swing and a miss. Granted, Kennedy was still in charge and involved with the development of Mando, but Filoni's fingerprints are all over this film. To not even hit $100 million over Memorial Day weekend has to have tongues wagging in the Disney C-suite.

One of the other issues that Mando failing to launch presents is that everyday people simply aren't into this brand of Star Wars anymore. A couple years ago, a Mando movie, following that explosive, rousing finale of the second season where Luke Skywalker appeared, cleaved a whole battery of robots in twain, and strode off with Grogu in tow, would have done gangbusters at the box office. Instead, Kennedy allegedly pooh-poohed bringing Luke back in such a central way and actively undercut that entire finale.

Then, across an entire season of The Book of Boba Fett and the third season of The Mandalorian, pretty much every droplet of hype that had peaked at the end of season two was flushed down the toilet. Kennedy got her way, but at the cost of Mando's relevance and popularity. Somehow, that's the point when Disney decided, you know what? Let's get that Mando movie out, people love baby Yoda! Uh, they did.... several years ago. Now, Grogu (a terrible name) is passé, boring, done. And all of this is to say nothing of the abortive sequel trilogy, which Disney is potentially in the process of finding a way to erase.

Even more troubling is the alleged price tag for Mando. Access media is touting paperwork filed with the state of California for film tax credits to assert that the movie only cost $165 million to make. Why is that important? Let's talk about how profit works in Hollywood. If it was only $165 million to produce Mando, you then double that budget for marketing (and Mando has had a lot of marketing behind it) and add the two totals together, which in this case puts the movie at $330 million. From there, you again have to double the total (these are rough numbers, mind you) to get the amount you must exceed for the film to make money.

Here's the issue: if Mando cost more than $165 million, instead of needing to make about $600 million to turn a profit, that number goes up. The paperwork filed in California was the film budget and not the total spend to get the movie made. Meaning, the sum doesn't include the salaries of stars like Pedro Pascal, Sigourney Weaver, and others, as well as other expenses, like the film crew. It's all funny numbers and head games (allegedly), and thus why the real box office haul for Mando was obfuscated until after Monday. By the time Monday passed, this was old news and the desired story, "Mando made a hundred million!" hit the trades, instead of "Mando fails to hit $100 million! Huge flop underway!"

It's unlikely that Mando will be able to build up any momentum, as a slate of highly competitive films (including Disney's own Toy Story 5) are waiting just round the corner. The drop off will probably be significant come this weekend and beyond. Which is a shame, because by all accounts the movie's biggest offense is simply that it isn't all that original or exciting. Those who have seen Mando have attested that it isn't total junk. If you have kids it's likely a good way to spend the afternoon, and super fans, what diehards that remain, will probably enjoy themselves. Sadly, that won't be enough to give Mando legs—and now the question that remains is, what's next for Disney Star Wars?

Source: Deadline + That Park Place